Metals Fall Across the Board, Alumina Drops Over 3%, COMEX Silver and Silicon Metal Fall Over 1% [[SMM] Midday Review]

SMM April 30 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell, with SHFE copper and SHFE zinc dropping 0.26% and 0.47%, respectively. SHFE tin fell 0.13%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%, while SHFE lead fell 0.38%.

In addition, alumina fell 3.1%. Lithium carbonate fell 0.21%, silicon metal fell 1.1%, and polysilicon fell 0.43%.

The ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore dropping 0.85%, rebar falling 0.61%, HRC declining 0.74%, and stainless steel decreasing 0.24%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.91%, and coke fell 0.87%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:42 a.m., overseas base metals were nearly universally down. LME tin and LME zinc fell slightly. LME lead rose 0.1%, LME copper fell 0.55%, and LME aluminum fell 0.28%. LME nickel rose 0.29%.

In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold fell 0.46%, and COMEX silver fell 1.11%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.57%, and SHFE silver fell 0.21%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the Europe Containerized Freight Index rose 0.77% to 1,290.4 points.

As of 11:42 a.m. on April 30, some midday futures market movements:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on April 30

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: As of Thursday, April 30, SMM copper inventories in major domestic regions fell 25,500 mt from Monday to 129,600 mt, a decrease of 52,100 mt from last Thursday, achieving destocking for nine consecutive weeks, with the destocking speed accelerating... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestically:

【NBS: April PMI at 49%, Manufacturing Enterprises Focused on Domestic Sales Generally Stable】 The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released China's PMI for April today (30th). Affected by factors such as the rapid changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI for April fell from the previous month, but high-tech manufacturing and other related industries continued to expand, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises focused on domestic sales remained generally stable. China's manufacturing PMI for April was 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of key industries, the overall market demand for new growth drivers maintained a steady and increasing trend, with domestic market demand showing good growth. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing in April was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, continuing a good development trend. The new orders index for consumer goods manufacturing was also at the critical point of 50%, indicating a good release of domestic market demand for consumer goods manufacturing. From the perspective of enterprise expectations, the expected index for production and operation activities in April was 52.1%, continuing to be in expansion territory. From the perspective of non-manufacturing, non-manufacturing as a whole continued to expand, with positive performances in investment, consumption, and new growth driver-related activities. The business activity index for the service sector in April was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point. Among them, activities related to residents' tourism and leisure performed well, and industries related to the information service sector remained active. 》Click for details

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 530.8 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.50%, unchanged from before. As 108 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan was realized on the day.

► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on April 30 was 7.2014 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar:

As of 11:42 a.m., the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.34. US data showed that US consumer confidence in April slipped to a nearly five-year low as growing concerns about tariffs weighed on the economic outlook. Market participants will focus on US economic data, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released later today and the non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, to further assess the impact of US trade policy on the outlook for US interest rates. Market participants currently believe that the US Fed will cut interest rates by about 97 basis points by the end of 2025.

Other Currencies:

Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q1 rose 0.9%, slightly higher than expected, but the annual rate of core inflation slowed to 2.9%, the lowest level in three years, pulling back into the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range. Despite the CPI slightly exceeding expectations, the market still widely expects the RBA to cut interest rates on May 20 to address uncertainties in the global economic outlook. Data showed that rising electricity prices were the main driver of the CPI rebound, while service sector inflation pulled back, supporting expectations for policy easing. (Huitong Finance)

Data:

Today, the US April ADP employment change, the preliminary Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 GDP price index quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 consumer spending annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 GDP implicit deflator quarter-on-quarter rate - seasonally adjusted, the US April Chicago PMI, the US March personal spending month-on-month rate, the US March core PCE price index annual rate, the US March seasonally adjusted pending home sales index month-on-month rate, the Australia Q1 CPI quarter-on-quarter rate, the Australia Q1 CPI annual rate, the preliminary France Q1 GDP annual rate, the Germany March actual retail sales month-on-month rate, the Germany March actual retail sales annual rate, the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Germany April seasonally adjusted change in the number of unemployed persons, the preliminary Germany Q1 unadjusted quarterly GDP annual rate, the preliminary Germany April CPI annual rate, the Switzerland April Credit Suisse/CFA Economic Expectations Index, the preliminary eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP annual rate, the Canada February seasonally adjusted GDP annual rate, and other data will be released.

It should be noted that on April 30, there will be no night session trading at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) in China due to the Labor Day holiday.

Crude Oil:

As of 11:42 a.m., crude oil futures fell, with US crude falling 1.21% and Brent crude falling 1.09%. This was due to concerns about weak global economic growth and fuel demand triggered by the US's erratic tariff policies. Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said that concerns about demand amid trade disputes weighed on investor confidence. He added, "The market is also worried that the recent strength in US economic data is only temporary, driven by stockpiling ahead of tariffs taking effect, and that this effect is now fading."
　　
Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories rose last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. As of the week ending April 25, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels. Previously, surveyed analysts had expected, on average, an increase of about 400,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 1 million barrels in gasoline inventories, and a decrease of about 1.6 million barrels in distillate inventories last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday.
　　
The possibility that OPEC, composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, may increase production also weighed on oil prices, especially as trade disputes put pressure on demand. Industry insiders said that several OPEC member countries may propose accelerating the increase in oil production for the second consecutive month in June. (Webstock Inc.)

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Spot Market Overview:

► Copper inventories in major domestic regions fell by 25,500 mt this week [SMM Weekly Data]

► Downstream manufacturers have basically completed pre-holiday stockpiling, with spot premiums under pressure and declining [SMM South China Copper Spot]

► On the last trading day before the holiday, market stockpiling demand cooled [SMM North China Copper Spot]

Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view~